I have been selling real estate in Cook County since 1989 and we have been through a LOT of fluctuations in the market and economy. When I was a kid, summer was busy and GM shut down during the winter and now our business is usually busy year round with July, August, Sept & Oct being the prime months.
One of the more interesting aspects of my job is try and figure out motivation with consumers and analyzing the patterns in regards sales – numbers don’t lie but they can be manipulated. There is nothing more satisfying than doing a comprehensive review of sales and it supports your market analysis!
Below is a comparison of last Jan-May sales and this years sales:
Jan 1 – May 31, 2013 – 33 Sales – AVG Sales Price $148,740 – 191 New Listings
Jan 1 – May 31, 2014 – 43 Sales – AVG Price Price $202,565 – 266 New Listings
TRANSLATION – 30% increase in volume of sales and there were more upper end sales, which increased the average price. There were some nice Lake Superior sales and they were good values. The increase in the number of listings reflects the sellers increased confidence in the market.
Historically it is always slow around the first two weeks of June because of graduations & it is very possible that the black flies might be a little thick! This year it felt really slow and it was not a good sign when I could walk up to the counters of both the Donut Shop and Java Moose on a Saturday morning – normally they should have long lines.
Below is the comparison of the 2014 and 2013 May sales:
June of 2013 – 13 Sales – AVG Sales Price $153,561 – 120 New Listings
June of 2014 – 15 Sales – AVG Sales Price $279,159 – 83 New Listings
These numbers are stronger than I would have guessed and they are not 100% correct yet because some sales have not closed. My guess is that we should see the slow down in June showings & phone calls be reflected in the July sales. The June sales were generated earlier in the spring.
The weather here AND where buyer’s live does definitely influence the timing of our market. When it is super hot everywhere else, Cook County tourism jumps as do sales. Gas prices also have a strong effect on tourism and sales. When gas prices spiked in 2007, the land sales plummeted and that was BEFORE the market crashed.
Since the market crashed in 2008, many buyers have been leery to move on property in the beginning of the summer and instead prefer to wait to offer till late fall or the middle of winter with the hopes they can negotiate the best deal.
Positive and negative media coverage definitely influence consumers and their confidence. The Minneapolis Star & Tribune printed the following article and they are correct because there are a significant amount of cash buyers.
There is a lot of speculation in real estate and we don’t know what the future will bring but what we do know is that the sun needs to shine, the bugs need to die, the cities needs to dry up AND get some super hot weather and buyers will continue to find their own get-a-way on the North Shore!